ELC vs CEL
Elche (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-11 · FT 0-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ELC win 36.2% fair 2.76
Draw 25.7% fair 3.88
CEL win 38.0% fair 2.63
Expected Goals
ELC
1.29
—
1.38
CEL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ELC ×0.900 (matched 8), CEL ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 CEL | 12.3% | |
| ELC 0-1 CEL | 9.6% | |
| ELC 1-0 CEL | 9.0% | |
| ELC 1-2 CEL | 8.5% | |
| ELC 2-1 CEL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).