ELC vs CEL
Elche (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
ELC win 35.9% fair 2.78
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
CEL win 39.8% fair 2.52
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.4% / 24.4% / 41.2%.
Expected Goals
ELC
1.41
—
1.56
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 CEL | 11.3% | |
| ELC 1-2 CEL | 8.8% | |
| ELC 0-1 CEL | 8.0% | |
| ELC 2-1 CEL | 7.9% | |
| ELC 1-0 CEL | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).