Gameweek 7
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 19:00 | ESP vs ELC | 54.4% | 22.4% | 23.3% | 1-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 12:00 | OSA vs RAY | 40.9% | 24.7% | 34.4% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 14:15 | ATH vs ALA | 43.3% | 24.2% | 32.5% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 16:30 | CEL vs RAC | 50.8% | 24.0% | 25.1% | 5-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 19:00 | SEV vs FCB | 12.9% | 14.0% | 73.1% | 1-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 12:00 | GET vs MLG | 46.7% | 28.5% | 24.8% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 14:15 | ATM vs RMA | 30.3% | 23.0% | 46.7% | 2-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 16:30 | DEP vs BET | 30.0% | 24.3% | 45.7% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 16:30 | VIL vs LEV | 60.1% | 19.2% | 20.7% | 3-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 19:00 | VAL vs RSO | 41.0% | 23.4% | 35.7% | 2-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.