GET vs MLG
Getafe (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
GET win 49.6% fair 2.02
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
MLG win 24.1% fair 4.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.4% / 26.9% / 22.6%.
Expected Goals
GET
1.43
—
0.86
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.3% | fair 2.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.7% | fair 1.68 |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 1-0 MLG | 14.4% | |
| GET 1-1 MLG | 12.4% | |
| GET 2-0 MLG | 10.3% | |
| GET 0-0 MLG | 10.1% | |
| GET 2-1 MLG | 8.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).