Gameweek 6
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 19:00 | RSO vs CEL | 40.6% | 23.8% | 35.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-16 00:00 | ALA vs VAL | 44.0% | 25.5% | 30.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-16 00:00 | ATM vs OSA | 53.7% | 23.7% | 22.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-16 00:00 | BET vs GET | 50.6% | 26.3% | 23.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-16 00:00 | DEP vs SEV | 36.5% | 24.4% | 39.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-16 00:00 | ELC vs RMA | 21.9% | 20.4% | 57.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-16 00:00 | FCB vs RAC | 77.3% | 12.8% | 9.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-16 00:00 | LEV vs ATH | 44.0% | 24.7% | 31.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-16 00:00 | MLG vs VIL | 24.5% | 21.0% | 54.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-16 00:00 | RAY vs ESP | 43.3% | 26.6% | 30.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.