Gameweek 6
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 19:00 | RSO vs CEL | 48.9% | 23.1% | 28.0% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-15 17:00 | RAY vs ESP | 43.5% | 24.8% | 31.7% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-15 18:00 | ALA vs VAL | 50.8% | 23.1% | 26.2% | 0-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-15 19:30 | ELC vs RMA | 16.1% | 17.1% | 66.8% | 2-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-16 17:00 | ATM vs OSA | 51.2% | 24.1% | 24.7% | 4-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-16 17:00 | DEP vs SEV | 39.7% | 24.4% | 35.9% | 0-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-16 19:30 | FCB vs RAC | 83.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-17 17:00 | BET vs GET | 56.2% | 24.6% | 19.2% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-17 19:30 | MLG vs VIL | 23.4% | 21.0% | 55.6% | 1-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-21 18:00 | LEV vs ATH | 41.4% | 24.1% | 34.5% | 3-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.