ALA vs VAL
Alavés (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ALA win 44.6% fair 2.24
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
VAL win 29.7% fair 3.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.4% / 26.0% / 29.7%.
Expected Goals
ALA
1.46
—
1.15
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.7% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 VAL | 12.3% | |
| ALA 1-0 VAL | 10.8% | |
| ALA 2-1 VAL | 9.0% | |
| ALA 0-1 VAL | 8.4% | |
| ALA 2-0 VAL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).