MLG vs VIL
Málaga (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
MLG win 25.1% fair 3.98
Draw 21.5% fair 4.64
VIL win 53.4% fair 1.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.3% / 21.0% / 58.7%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.13
—
2.06
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.2% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-2 VIL | 9.9% | |
| MLG 1-1 VIL | 9.6% | |
| MLG 0-2 VIL | 8.7% | |
| MLG 0-1 VIL | 8.5% | |
| MLG 1-3 VIL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).