RSO vs CEL
Real Sociedad (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RSO win 40.6% fair 2.46
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
CEL win 35.6% fair 2.81
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.9% / 23.8% / 36.4%.
Expected Goals
RSO
1.60
—
1.52
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.8% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 CEL | 10.8% | |
| RSO 2-1 CEL | 8.6% | |
| RSO 1-2 CEL | 8.2% | |
| RSO 1-0 CEL | 7.1% | |
| RSO 0-1 CEL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).