Gameweek 5
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 00:00 | ATH vs ELC | 43.1% | 24.4% | 32.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | CEL vs MLG | 57.6% | 22.1% | 20.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | GET vs DEP | 47.6% | 26.8% | 25.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | LEV vs FCB | 17.0% | 17.9% | 65.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | OSA vs ESP | 43.9% | 26.0% | 30.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | RAC vs ALA | 37.1% | 24.9% | 38.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | RMA vs RAY | 63.4% | 20.4% | 16.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | RSO vs ATM | 33.3% | 23.2% | 43.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | SEV vs VAL | 44.5% | 24.7% | 30.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | VIL vs BET | 49.0% | 22.9% | 28.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.