Gameweek 5
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 19:00 | SEV vs VAL | 42.2% | 24.5% | 33.3% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 12:00 | RAC vs ALA | 32.2% | 23.3% | 44.5% | 2-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-12 14:15 | OSA vs ESP | 46.7% | 24.8% | 28.5% | 0-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 16:30 | ATH vs ELC | 55.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 19:00 | RMA vs RAY | 67.1% | 17.9% | 15.0% | 4-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 12:00 | CEL vs MLG | 53.0% | 24.7% | 22.2% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 14:15 | LEV vs FCB | 15.1% | 15.3% | 69.6% | 2-4 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 16:30 | GET vs DEP | 44.9% | 27.1% | 27.9% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 19:00 | RSO vs ATM | 41.3% | 23.6% | 35.1% | 0-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-14 19:00 | VIL vs BET | 44.7% | 22.8% | 32.5% | 1-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.