ATH vs ELC
Athletic Club (home) vs Elche · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ATH win 43.1% fair 2.32
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
ELC win 32.5% fair 3.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.7% / 24.4% / 32.9%.
Expected Goals
ATH
1.58
—
1.36
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 ELC | 11.4% | |
| ATH 2-1 ELC | 9.0% | |
| ATH 1-0 ELC | 8.4% | |
| ATH 1-2 ELC | 7.7% | |
| ATH 0-1 ELC | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).