RMA vs RAY
Real Madrid (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
RMA win 63.4% fair 1.58
Draw 20.4% fair 4.90
RAY win 16.2% fair 6.19
Expected Goals
RMA
2.07
—
0.86
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 RAY | 11.5% | |
| RMA 1-0 RAY | 11.1% | |
| RMA 2-1 RAY | 9.8% | |
| RMA 1-1 RAY | 9.5% | |
| RMA 3-0 RAY | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).