RMA vs RAY
Real Madrid (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (09-12 · FT 4-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RMA win 67.1% fair 1.49
Draw 17.9% fair 5.57
RAY win 15.0% fair 6.68
Expected Goals
RMA
2.43
—
0.97
RAY
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): RMA ×1.100 (matched 11), RAY ×1.100 (matched 8). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.1% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.9% | fair 2.95 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 RAY | 9.8% | |
| RMA 2-1 RAY | 9.6% | |
| RMA 1-0 RAY | 8.1% | |
| RMA 3-0 RAY | 7.9% | |
| RMA 1-1 RAY | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).