RAC vs ALA
Racing Santander (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
RAC win 37.1% fair 2.69
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
ALA win 38.0% fair 2.63
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.0% / 25.1% / 39.9%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.36
—
1.47
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 ALA | 11.8% | |
| RAC 1-2 ALA | 8.7% | |
| RAC 0-1 ALA | 8.6% | |
| RAC 2-1 ALA | 8.0% | |
| RAC 1-0 ALA | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).