OSA vs ESP
Osasuna (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
OSA win 43.9% fair 2.28
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
ESP win 30.1% fair 3.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.6% / 26.3% / 30.1%.
Expected Goals
OSA
1.42
—
1.13
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 ESP | 12.5% | |
| OSA 1-0 ESP | 11.0% | |
| OSA 2-1 ESP | 8.9% | |
| OSA 0-1 ESP | 8.8% | |
| OSA 2-0 ESP | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).