VIL vs BET
Villarreal (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (09-14 · FT 1-2 ) · lineup adj ×1.01 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VIL win 44.7% fair 2.24
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
BET win 32.5% fair 3.08
Expected Goals
VIL
1.81
—
1.53
BET
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): VIL ×1.010 (matched 10), BET ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.2% | fair 2.84 |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 1-1 BET | 9.8% | |
| VIL 2-1 BET | 8.9% | |
| VIL 1-2 BET | 7.5% | |
| VIL 2-2 BET | 6.8% | |
| VIL 1-0 BET | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).