GET vs DEP
Getafe (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 71% · pregame locked (09-13 · FT 1-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
GET win 44.9% fair 2.23
Draw 27.1% fair 3.68
DEP win 27.9% fair 3.58
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.7% / 27.8% / 27.5%.
Expected Goals
GET
1.33
—
0.98
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 1-0 DEP | 13.3% | |
| GET 1-1 DEP | 12.9% | |
| GET 0-0 DEP | 10.0% | |
| GET 0-1 DEP | 9.8% | |
| GET 2-0 DEP | 8.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).