GET vs DEP
Getafe (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
GET win 47.6% fair 2.10
Draw 26.8% fair 3.73
DEP win 25.6% fair 3.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.9% / 27.5% / 24.6%.
Expected Goals
GET
1.38
—
0.90
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | fair 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
| Both teams to score | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 1-0 DEP | 14.1% | |
| GET 1-1 DEP | 12.7% | |
| GET 0-0 DEP | 10.2% | |
| GET 2-0 DEP | 9.7% | |
| GET 0-1 DEP | 9.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).