CEL vs MLG
Celta Vigo (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
CEL win 57.6% fair 1.74
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
MLG win 20.4% fair 4.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.3% / 21.6% / 18.1%.
Expected Goals
CEL
1.94
—
0.96
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-0 MLG | 10.7% | |
| CEL 2-0 MLG | 10.4% | |
| CEL 1-1 MLG | 10.2% | |
| CEL 2-1 MLG | 9.9% | |
| CEL 3-0 MLG | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).