RSO vs ATM
Real Sociedad (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-13 · FT 0-3 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RSO win 41.3% fair 2.42
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
ATM win 35.1% fair 2.85
Expected Goals
RSO
1.64
—
1.52
ATM
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): RSO ×1.100 (matched 10), ATM ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.7% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 ATM | 10.6% | |
| RSO 2-1 ATM | 8.7% | |
| RSO 1-2 ATM | 8.0% | |
| RSO 1-0 ATM | 6.9% | |
| RSO 2-2 ATM | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).