LEV vs FCB
Levante (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (09-13 · FT 2-4 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.09
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LEV win 15.1% fair 6.61
Draw 15.3% fair 6.55
FCB win 69.6% fair 1.44
Expected Goals
LEV
1.14
—
2.94
FCB
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LEV ×1.100 (matched 11), FCB ×1.085 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.3% | fair 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.7% | fair 4.41 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-2 FCB | 8.3% | |
| LEV 1-3 FCB | 8.2% | |
| LEV 0-2 FCB | 7.3% | |
| LEV 0-3 FCB | 7.2% | |
| LEV 1-4 FCB | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 5.6 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 6.4 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).