Gameweek 4
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 19:00 | BET vs RMA | 29.3% | 21.8% | 48.9% | 1-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:15 | ATH vs ATM | 34.4% | 25.0% | 40.6% | 3-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 16:30 | RAY vs RAC | 54.3% | 23.0% | 22.7% | 3-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 19:00 | VIL vs DEP | 63.3% | 19.2% | 17.5% | 2-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 14:15 | VAL vs FCB | 16.8% | 16.9% | 66.3% | 0-5 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-06 16:30 | ALA vs OSA | 43.1% | 25.2% | 31.7% | 5-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 16:30 | MLG vs LEV | 33.2% | 23.6% | 43.2% | 0-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-06 19:00 | ESP vs SEV | 45.2% | 24.2% | 30.6% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-07 17:00 | GET vs CEL | 35.9% | 31.0% | 33.0% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-07 19:30 | ELC vs RSO | 34.0% | 23.0% | 42.9% | 2-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.