Gameweek 4
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 19:00 | BET vs RMA | 31.8% | 23.9% | 44.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:15 | ATH vs ATM | 28.8% | 24.1% | 47.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 16:30 | RAY vs RAC | 50.2% | 24.8% | 25.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 19:00 | VIL vs DEP | 65.4% | 18.3% | 16.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 14:15 | VAL vs FCB | 19.1% | 19.8% | 61.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-06 16:30 | ALA vs OSA | 42.2% | 26.0% | 31.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 16:30 | MLG vs LEV | 37.8% | 25.0% | 37.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 19:00 | ESP vs SEV | 43.5% | 24.5% | 32.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-07 17:00 | GET vs CEL | 36.4% | 28.4% | 35.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-07 19:30 | ELC vs RSO | 41.0% | 23.1% | 35.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.