ATH vs ATM
Athletic Club (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-05 · FT 3-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ATH win 34.4% fair 2.90
Draw 25.0% fair 4.01
ATM win 40.6% fair 2.46
Expected Goals
ATH
1.31
—
1.51
ATM
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ATH ×1.100 (matched 11), ATM ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 ATM | 11.8% | |
| ATH 0-1 ATM | 9.1% | |
| ATH 1-2 ATM | 8.9% | |
| ATH 1-0 ATM | 7.9% | |
| ATH 2-1 ATM | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).