ATH vs ATM
Athletic Club (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
ATH win 28.8% fair 3.47
Draw 24.1% fair 4.16
ATM win 47.2% fair 2.12
Expected Goals
ATH
1.17
—
1.69
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 ATM | 11.3% | |
| ATH 0-1 ATM | 9.7% | |
| ATH 1-2 ATM | 9.6% | |
| ATH 0-2 ATM | 8.2% | |
| ATH 1-0 ATM | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).