Gameweek 3
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 17:00 | RAC vs ELC | 40.4% | 24.2% | 35.3% | 3-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-28 19:30 | ALA vs VIL | 31.8% | 23.2% | 45.0% | 1-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-29 15:00 | LEV vs BET | 31.7% | 24.5% | 43.8% | 5-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-29 17:00 | RSO vs ESP | 45.6% | 23.5% | 30.9% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 19:30 | SEV vs ATM | 32.6% | 24.0% | 43.4% | 1-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-30 15:00 | RMA vs MLG | 73.4% | 15.0% | 11.6% | 4-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-30 17:30 | DEP vs VAL | 36.8% | 25.6% | 37.6% | 3-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-30 19:30 | CEL vs ATH | 52.0% | 23.7% | 24.3% | 0-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-31 17:30 | OSA vs GET | 42.6% | 28.8% | 28.6% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-31 19:30 | FCB vs RAY | 71.4% | 16.2% | 12.3% | 5-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.