RSO vs ESP
Real Sociedad (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
RSO win 45.6% fair 2.19
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
ESP win 30.9% fair 3.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.5% / 23.5% / 31.0%.
Expected Goals
RSO
1.72
—
1.39
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.9% | fair 2.50 |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 ESP | 10.7% | |
| RSO 2-1 ESP | 9.2% | |
| RSO 1-0 ESP | 7.7% | |
| RSO 1-2 ESP | 7.4% | |
| RSO 2-0 ESP | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).