OSA vs GET
Osasuna (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
OSA win 42.6% fair 2.35
Draw 28.8% fair 3.47
GET win 28.6% fair 3.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.1% / 29.6% / 28.3%.
Expected Goals
OSA
1.19
—
0.92
GET
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.1% | fair 2.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
| Both teams to score | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-0 GET | 14.5% | |
| OSA 1-1 GET | 13.3% | |
| OSA 0-0 GET | 12.2% | |
| OSA 0-1 GET | 11.2% | |
| OSA 2-0 GET | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).