RAC vs ELC
Racing Santander (home) vs Elche · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
RAC win 40.4% fair 2.47
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
ELC win 35.3% fair 2.83
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.1% / 24.3% / 36.6%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.53
—
1.47
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.4% | fair 2.36 |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 ELC | 11.2% | |
| RAC 2-1 ELC | 8.6% | |
| RAC 1-2 ELC | 8.2% | |
| RAC 1-0 ELC | 7.6% | |
| RAC 0-1 ELC | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).