Gameweek 2
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 19:00 | RAY vs ALA | 43.5% | 26.2% | 30.2% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-21 19:00 | BET vs RSO | 51.9% | 21.8% | 26.4% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-22 15:00 | ATH vs SEV | 42.6% | 24.4% | 33.0% | 1-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-22 17:30 | VAL vs CEL | 38.3% | 24.9% | 36.8% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-22 19:30 | ESP vs RMA | 25.4% | 22.8% | 51.8% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-23 15:00 | ATM vs VIL | 43.8% | 23.6% | 32.7% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-23 17:30 | GET vs RAC | 46.9% | 26.3% | 26.8% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-23 19:30 | ELC vs FCB | 20.6% | 19.6% | 59.8% | 0-5 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-24 17:30 | OSA vs LEV | 47.9% | 24.3% | 27.7% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-24 19:30 | MLG vs DEP | 42.2% | 24.9% | 33.0% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.