RAY vs ALA
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 77% · pregame locked (08-20 · FT 1-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RAY win 43.5% fair 2.30
Draw 26.2% fair 3.81
ALA win 30.2% fair 3.31
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.1% / 26.6% / 30.3%.
Expected Goals
RAY
1.39
—
1.12
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 ALA | 12.6% | |
| RAY 1-0 ALA | 11.2% | |
| RAY 0-1 ALA | 9.1% | |
| RAY 2-1 ALA | 8.8% | |
| RAY 0-0 ALA | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).