RAY vs ALA
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RAY win 43.1% fair 2.32
Draw 26.5% fair 3.78
ALA win 30.5% fair 3.28
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.6% / 26.8% / 30.6%.
Expected Goals
RAY
1.37
—
1.12
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 ALA | 12.7% | |
| RAY 1-0 ALA | 11.4% | |
| RAY 0-1 ALA | 9.3% | |
| RAY 2-1 ALA | 8.7% | |
| RAY 0-0 ALA | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).