MLG vs DEP
Málaga (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 57%
Match Outcome
MLG win 41.8% fair 2.39
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
DEP win 33.1% fair 3.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.4% / 25.5% / 34.2%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.45
—
1.31
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 DEP | 12.0% | |
| MLG 1-0 DEP | 9.2% | |
| MLG 2-1 DEP | 8.7% | |
| MLG 0-1 DEP | 8.3% | |
| MLG 1-2 DEP | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).