MLG vs DEP
Málaga (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 55% · pregame locked (08-24 · FT 1-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
MLG win 42.2% fair 2.37
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
DEP win 33.0% fair 3.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.8% / 25.2% / 34.1%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.48
—
1.33
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 DEP | 11.9% | |
| MLG 1-0 DEP | 8.9% | |
| MLG 2-1 DEP | 8.8% | |
| MLG 0-1 DEP | 8.0% | |
| MLG 1-2 DEP | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).