VAL vs CEL
Valencia (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
VAL win 38.1% fair 2.62
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
CEL win 35.9% fair 2.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.0% / 26.2% / 36.8%.
Expected Goals
VAL
1.32
—
1.31
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 CEL | 12.5% | |
| VAL 1-0 CEL | 9.5% | |
| VAL 0-1 CEL | 9.5% | |
| VAL 2-1 CEL | 8.2% | |
| VAL 1-2 CEL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).