VAL vs CEL
Valencia (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 77% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 0-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VAL win 38.3% fair 2.61
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
CEL win 36.8% fair 2.72
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.1% / 25.0% / 37.9%.
Expected Goals
VAL
1.42
—
1.43
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 CEL | 11.7% | |
| VAL 1-2 CEL | 8.4% | |
| VAL 2-1 CEL | 8.3% | |
| VAL 0-1 CEL | 8.3% | |
| VAL 1-0 CEL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).