ATM vs VIL
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
ATM win 43.6% fair 2.30
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
VIL win 33.1% fair 3.02
Expected Goals
ATM
1.71
—
1.48
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.1% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-1 VIL | 10.4% | |
| ATM 2-1 VIL | 8.9% | |
| ATM 1-2 VIL | 7.7% | |
| ATM 1-0 VIL | 7.0% | |
| ATM 2-2 VIL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).