ATM vs VIL
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 2-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ATM win 43.8% fair 2.29
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
VIL win 32.7% fair 3.06
Expected Goals
ATM
1.69
—
1.44
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.4% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-1 VIL | 10.6% | |
| ATM 2-1 VIL | 9.0% | |
| ATM 1-2 VIL | 7.7% | |
| ATM 1-0 VIL | 7.4% | |
| ATM 2-2 VIL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).