BET vs RSO
Real Betis (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 78% · pregame locked (08-21 · FT 1-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BET win 51.9% fair 1.93
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
RSO win 26.4% fair 3.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.7% / 21.5% / 25.8%.
Expected Goals
BET
2.03
—
1.37
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.0% | fair 2.94 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| BET 2-1 RSO | 9.4% | |
| BET 1-1 RSO | 9.3% | |
| BET 2-0 RSO | 6.9% | |
| BET 1-0 RSO | 6.8% | |
| BET 2-2 RSO | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BET goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).