BET vs RSO
Real Betis (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
BET win 53.4% fair 1.87
Draw 22.0% fair 4.55
RSO win 24.6% fair 4.07
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.5% / 21.7% / 23.8%.
Expected Goals
BET
1.98
—
1.25
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.3% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| BET 1-1 RSO | 9.8% | |
| BET 2-1 RSO | 9.7% | |
| BET 1-0 RSO | 7.8% | |
| BET 2-0 RSO | 7.8% | |
| BET 3-1 RSO | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BET goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).