ELC vs FCB
Elche (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 0-5 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ELC win 20.6% fair 4.85
Draw 19.6% fair 5.11
FCB win 59.8% fair 1.67
Expected Goals
ELC
1.13
—
2.30
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.4% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-2 FCB | 9.7% | |
| ELC 0-2 FCB | 8.5% | |
| ELC 1-1 FCB | 8.4% | |
| ELC 0-1 FCB | 7.4% | |
| ELC 1-3 FCB | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 3.0 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).