Gameweek 1
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-15 17:30 | ALA vs GET | 39.7% | 28.1% | 32.3% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-15 19:30 | SEV vs RAY | 39.7% | 26.1% | 34.2% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-16 15:00 | RAC vs VIL | 26.5% | 21.5% | 52.0% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-16 17:00 | ESP vs LEV | 44.3% | 24.6% | 31.2% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-17 19:00 | DEP vs ELC | 37.2% | 24.3% | 38.4% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-19 19:00 | ATM vs MLG | 64.1% | 19.3% | 16.6% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-25 19:00 | VAL vs BET | 35.4% | 25.2% | 39.4% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-26 19:00 | RMA vs RSO | 64.9% | 18.3% | 16.8% | 4-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-27 18:30 | CEL vs OSA | 47.9% | 25.4% | 26.6% | 1-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-27 19:00 | FCB vs ATH | 77.3% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.