ALA vs GET
Alavés (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 77% · pregame locked (08-15 · FT 3-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ALA win 39.7% fair 2.52
Draw 28.1% fair 3.56
GET win 32.3% fair 3.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.6% / 28.7% / 32.6%.
Expected Goals
ALA
1.18
—
1.06
GET
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | fair 2.20 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 GET | 13.3% | |
| ALA 1-0 GET | 12.5% | |
| ALA 0-1 GET | 11.3% | |
| ALA 0-0 GET | 10.6% | |
| ALA 2-1 GET | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).