DEP vs ELC
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Elche · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
DEP win 39.5% fair 2.53
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
ELC win 36.0% fair 2.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.9% / 24.7% / 37.4%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.46
—
1.45
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 ELC | 11.5% | |
| DEP 2-1 ELC | 8.4% | |
| DEP 1-2 ELC | 8.4% | |
| DEP 1-0 ELC | 7.9% | |
| DEP 0-1 ELC | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).