DEP vs ELC
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Elche · model confidence 65% · pregame locked (08-17 · FT 1-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
DEP win 37.2% fair 2.68
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
ELC win 38.4% fair 2.60
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.9% / 24.4% / 40.7%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.42
—
1.55
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.2% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 ELC | 11.3% | |
| DEP 1-2 ELC | 8.8% | |
| DEP 2-1 ELC | 8.0% | |
| DEP 0-1 ELC | 8.0% | |
| DEP 1-0 ELC | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).