RAC vs VIL
Racing Santander (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
RAC win 26.6% fair 3.76
Draw 21.5% fair 4.65
VIL win 51.9% fair 1.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.3% / 21.0% / 56.7%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.24
—
2.08
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.4% | fair 2.82 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-2 VIL | 9.7% | |
| RAC 1-1 VIL | 9.3% | |
| RAC 0-2 VIL | 7.8% | |
| RAC 0-1 VIL | 7.5% | |
| RAC 1-3 VIL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).