RAC vs VIL
Racing Santander (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 67% · pregame locked (08-16 · FT 2-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RAC win 26.5% fair 3.77
Draw 21.5% fair 4.65
VIL win 52.0% fair 1.92
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.8% / 20.9% / 57.3%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.22
—
2.09
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.9% | fair 2.79 |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-2 VIL | 9.7% | |
| RAC 1-1 VIL | 9.3% | |
| RAC 0-2 VIL | 8.0% | |
| RAC 0-1 VIL | 7.7% | |
| RAC 1-3 VIL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).