CEL vs OSA
Celta Vigo (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
CEL win 46.2% fair 2.16
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
OSA win 28.2% fair 3.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.2% / 25.8% / 27.9%.
Expected Goals
CEL
1.49
—
1.10
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 OSA | 12.3% | |
| CEL 1-0 OSA | 11.2% | |
| CEL 2-1 OSA | 9.2% | |
| CEL 2-0 OSA | 8.3% | |
| CEL 0-1 OSA | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).