CEL vs OSA
Celta Vigo (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 77% · pregame locked (08-27 · FT 1-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CEL win 47.9% fair 2.09
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
OSA win 26.6% fair 3.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.2% / 25.6% / 26.1%.
Expected Goals
CEL
1.53
—
1.05
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 OSA | 12.2% | |
| CEL 1-0 OSA | 11.6% | |
| CEL 2-1 OSA | 9.3% | |
| CEL 2-0 OSA | 8.8% | |
| CEL 0-1 OSA | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).