VAL vs BET
Valencia (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
VAL win 34.2% fair 2.93
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
BET win 40.2% fair 2.49
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.5% / 25.9% / 41.6%.
Expected Goals
VAL
1.23
—
1.43
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 BET | 12.3% | |
| VAL 0-1 BET | 10.0% | |
| VAL 1-2 BET | 8.8% | |
| VAL 1-0 BET | 8.6% | |
| VAL 2-1 BET | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).