VAL vs BET
Valencia (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 78% · pregame locked (08-25 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VAL win 35.4% fair 2.82
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
BET win 39.4% fair 2.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.9% / 25.3% / 40.8%.
Expected Goals
VAL
1.31
—
1.46
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 BET | 12.0% | |
| VAL 0-1 BET | 9.1% | |
| VAL 1-2 BET | 8.8% | |
| VAL 1-0 BET | 8.2% | |
| VAL 2-1 BET | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).