RMA vs RSO
Real Madrid (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (08-26 · FT 4-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RMA win 64.9% fair 1.54
Draw 18.3% fair 5.45
RSO win 16.8% fair 5.95
Expected Goals
RMA
2.45
—
1.09
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.7% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.3% | fair 3.20 |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-1 RSO | 9.5% | |
| RMA 2-0 RSO | 8.7% | |
| RMA 3-1 RSO | 7.8% | |
| RMA 1-1 RSO | 7.7% | |
| RMA 3-0 RSO | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).