ATM vs MLG
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
ATM win 64.6% fair 1.55
Draw 19.3% fair 5.18
MLG win 16.1% fair 6.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.8% / 18.2% / 12.9%.
Expected Goals
ATM
2.26
—
0.87
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.6% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 2-0 MLG | 11.2% | |
| ATM 1-0 MLG | 9.9% | |
| ATM 2-1 MLG | 9.7% | |
| ATM 1-1 MLG | 8.6% | |
| ATM 3-0 MLG | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).