ATM vs MLG
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 67% · pregame locked (08-19 · FT 2-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ATM win 64.1% fair 1.56
Draw 19.3% fair 5.18
MLG win 16.6% fair 6.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.6% / 18.1% / 13.3%.
Expected Goals
ATM
2.29
—
0.90
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.2% | fair 2.61 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 2-0 MLG | 10.8% | |
| ATM 2-1 MLG | 9.7% | |
| ATM 1-0 MLG | 9.4% | |
| ATM 1-1 MLG | 8.5% | |
| ATM 3-0 MLG | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).