FCB vs ATH
Barcelona (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
FCB win 76.4% fair 1.31
Draw 13.7% fair 7.29
ATH win 9.9% fair 10.14
Expected Goals
FCB
2.92
—
0.82
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.1% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.9% | fair 3.59 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-0 ATH | 10.1% | |
| FCB 3-0 ATH | 9.8% | |
| FCB 2-1 ATH | 8.3% | |
| FCB 3-1 ATH | 8.1% | |
| FCB 4-0 ATH | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).