FCB vs ATH
Barcelona (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (08-27 · FT 2-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FCB win 77.3% fair 1.29
Draw 13.1% fair 7.66
ATH win 9.6% fair 10.41
Expected Goals
FCB
3.06
—
0.85
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.9% | fair 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.1% | fair 3.99 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-0 ATH | 9.5% | |
| FCB 2-0 ATH | 9.3% | |
| FCB 3-1 ATH | 8.1% | |
| FCB 2-1 ATH | 8.0% | |
| FCB 4-0 ATH | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).