SEV vs RAY
Sevilla (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 77% · pregame locked (08-15 · FT 2-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SEV win 39.7% fair 2.52
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
RAY win 34.2% fair 2.92
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.7% / 26.5% / 34.9%.
Expected Goals
SEV
1.33
—
1.25
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 RAY | 12.6% | |
| SEV 1-0 RAY | 10.0% | |
| SEV 0-1 RAY | 9.4% | |
| SEV 2-1 RAY | 8.4% | |
| SEV 1-2 RAY | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).