SEV vs RAY
Sevilla (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
SEV win 42.4% fair 2.36
Draw 25.8% fair 3.88
RAY win 31.8% fair 3.14
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.8% / 26.0% / 32.1%.
Expected Goals
SEV
1.42
—
1.21
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 RAY | 12.4% | |
| SEV 1-0 RAY | 10.2% | |
| SEV 2-1 RAY | 8.8% | |
| SEV 0-1 RAY | 8.7% | |
| SEV 1-2 RAY | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).