ESP vs LEV
Espanyol (home) vs Levante · model confidence 75% · pregame locked (08-16 · FT 3-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ESP win 44.3% fair 2.26
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
LEV win 31.2% fair 3.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.0% / 24.7% / 31.4%.
Expected Goals
ESP
1.57
—
1.29
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 LEV | 11.6% | |
| ESP 2-1 LEV | 9.1% | |
| ESP 1-0 LEV | 9.0% | |
| ESP 1-2 LEV | 7.5% | |
| ESP 0-1 LEV | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).