ESP vs LEV
Espanyol (home) vs Levante · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ESP win 47.0% fair 2.13
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
LEV win 28.4% fair 3.52
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.2% / 24.6% / 28.2%.
Expected Goals
ESP
1.61
—
1.19
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 LEV | 11.6% | |
| ESP 1-0 LEV | 9.8% | |
| ESP 2-1 LEV | 9.4% | |
| ESP 2-0 LEV | 7.9% | |
| ESP 0-1 LEV | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).