ESP vs RMA
Espanyol (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 81%
Match Outcome
ESP win 24.2% fair 4.14
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
RMA win 53.6% fair 1.87
Expected Goals
ESP
1.11
—
1.93
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.5% | fair 2.41 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 RMA | 10.2% | |
| ESP 1-2 RMA | 9.9% | |
| ESP 0-1 RMA | 9.3% | |
| ESP 0-2 RMA | 8.9% | |
| ESP 1-3 RMA | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).