ESP vs RMA
Espanyol (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 1-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ESP win 25.4% fair 3.94
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
RMA win 51.8% fair 1.93
Expected Goals
ESP
1.12
—
1.85
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 RMA | 10.6% | |
| ESP 1-2 RMA | 9.8% | |
| ESP 0-1 RMA | 9.5% | |
| ESP 0-2 RMA | 8.8% | |
| ESP 1-3 RMA | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).