OSA vs LEV
Osasuna (home) vs Levante · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
OSA win 47.6% fair 2.10
Draw 25.0% fair 3.99
LEV win 27.3% fair 3.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.9% / 25.2% / 26.9%.
Expected Goals
OSA
1.56
—
1.11
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 LEV | 12.0% | |
| OSA 1-0 LEV | 10.8% | |
| OSA 2-1 LEV | 9.4% | |
| OSA 2-0 LEV | 8.5% | |
| OSA 0-1 LEV | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).