OSA vs LEV
Osasuna (home) vs Levante · model confidence 75% · pregame locked (08-24 · FT 0-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
OSA win 47.9% fair 2.09
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
LEV win 27.7% fair 3.60
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.3% / 24.4% / 27.4%.
Expected Goals
OSA
1.65
—
1.18
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 LEV | 11.5% | |
| OSA 1-0 LEV | 9.7% | |
| OSA 2-1 LEV | 9.5% | |
| OSA 2-0 LEV | 8.0% | |
| OSA 0-1 LEV | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).