GET vs RAC
Getafe (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
GET win 47.2% fair 2.12
Draw 26.6% fair 3.76
RAC win 26.2% fair 3.81
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.4% / 27.2% / 25.4%.
Expected Goals
GET
1.39
—
0.94
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 1-0 RAC | 13.5% | |
| GET 1-1 RAC | 12.7% | |
| GET 0-0 RAC | 9.7% | |
| GET 2-0 RAC | 9.4% | |
| GET 0-1 RAC | 9.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).