GET vs RAC
Getafe (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 67% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 1-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
GET win 46.9% fair 2.13
Draw 26.3% fair 3.81
RAC win 26.8% fair 3.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.1% / 26.8% / 26.1%.
Expected Goals
GET
1.42
—
0.98
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | fair 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 1-0 RAC | 12.8% | |
| GET 1-1 RAC | 12.6% | |
| GET 2-0 RAC | 9.1% | |
| GET 0-0 RAC | 9.0% | |
| GET 2-1 RAC | 9.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).