ATH vs SEV
Athletic Club (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ATH win 39.9% fair 2.51
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
SEV win 35.6% fair 2.81
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.9% / 24.6% / 36.5%.
Expected Goals
ATH
1.50
—
1.44
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 SEV | 11.4% | |
| ATH 2-1 SEV | 8.6% | |
| ATH 1-2 SEV | 8.2% | |
| ATH 1-0 SEV | 7.9% | |
| ATH 0-1 SEV | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).