ATH vs SEV
Athletic Club (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 76% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 1-3 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ATH win 42.6% fair 2.35
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
SEV win 33.0% fair 3.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.0% / 24.5% / 33.5%.
Expected Goals
ATH
1.56
—
1.37
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 SEV | 11.4% | |
| ATH 2-1 SEV | 8.9% | |
| ATH 1-0 SEV | 8.3% | |
| ATH 1-2 SEV | 7.8% | |
| ATH 0-1 SEV | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).