SEV vs ATM
Sevilla (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
SEV win 32.6% fair 3.07
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
ATM win 43.4% fair 2.30
Expected Goals
SEV
1.33
—
1.66
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 ATM | 11.1% | |
| SEV 1-2 ATM | 9.2% | |
| SEV 0-1 ATM | 8.3% | |
| SEV 2-1 ATM | 7.4% | |
| SEV 0-2 ATM | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).