RMA vs MLG
Real Madrid (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 70% · pregame locked (08-30 · FT 4-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RMA win 73.4% fair 1.36
Draw 15.0% fair 6.66
MLG win 11.6% fair 8.62
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 79.2% / 13.1% / 7.7%.
Expected Goals
RMA
2.81
—
0.78
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.5% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.5% | fair 3.28 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 MLG | 10.9% | |
| RMA 3-0 MLG | 10.2% | |
| RMA 2-1 MLG | 8.5% | |
| RMA 3-1 MLG | 8.0% | |
| RMA 1-0 MLG | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).