CEL vs ATH
Celta Vigo (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
CEL win 52.0% fair 1.92
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
ATH win 24.3% fair 4.11
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.9% / 23.6% / 23.5%.
Expected Goals
CEL
1.74
—
1.08
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 ATH | 11.2% | |
| CEL 1-0 ATH | 10.3% | |
| CEL 2-1 ATH | 9.7% | |
| CEL 2-0 ATH | 9.0% | |
| CEL 0-1 ATH | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).