LEV vs BET
Levante (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
LEV win 31.7% fair 3.16
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
BET win 43.8% fair 2.28
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.6% / 24.6% / 45.8%.
Expected Goals
LEV
1.24
—
1.60
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 BET | 11.6% | |
| LEV 0-1 BET | 9.3% | |
| LEV 1-2 BET | 9.3% | |
| LEV 0-2 BET | 7.5% | |
| LEV 1-0 BET | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).