DEP vs VAL
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
DEP win 36.8% fair 2.72
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
VAL win 37.6% fair 2.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.6% / 26.0% / 39.4%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.28
—
1.38
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 VAL | 12.4% | |
| DEP 0-1 VAL | 9.7% | |
| DEP 1-0 VAL | 9.0% | |
| DEP 1-2 VAL | 8.5% | |
| DEP 2-1 VAL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).